Shortage of the hottest raw materials, decline in

2022-08-02
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Shortage of raw materials, decline in output and the advent of a new round of price increase storm of diammonium phosphate

from the beginning of July, the ex factory price of diammonium phosphate showed a partial upward trend. By the middle of July, the upward trend became stronger and stronger, and the domestic diammonium phosphate market began a new round of rise. At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium phosphate has risen to 2550-2570 yuan/ton, while the highest ex factory quotation has reached 2630-2650 yuan/ton. As the domestic autumn market is approaching, the sales strategy of each diammonium plant has begun to change, from international to domestic, from export to domestic. As the contracts that do not need to pay 20% tariff in the early stage have been sent out, the current domestic market prices are high, making enterprises temporarily ignore the international market before the tariff is reduced to 10% in October, and turn the main 'battlefield' to China

the ex factory price of diammonium in Anhui began to rise. Liuguo chemical raised the price for the first time since April. The ex factory price of 61% diammonium was 2340 yuan/ton. The price of DAP in Sifang group has increased a lot. At present, 57% of the factory price of coated DAP is 2320-2350 yuan/ton, and the factory price of non coated DAP is 2230-2250 yuan/ton. As it is not yet the season for the purchase of diammonium, the local diammonium terminal market is still in the off-season, the market is relatively cold, and there are few goods. Some local dealers said that they would not consider purchasing diammonium for the time being, and the current market price of 64% diammonium is more than 2700 yuan/ton

since the price adjustment of the subordinate enterprises of Yuntianhua in early July, Yunnan has been fully implementing the new order price recently, but the quantity of orders received is small. The transaction price of mainstream shipment of 64% diammonium in the early contract is 2500-2530 yuan/ton; The transaction price of small orders is 2550-2600 yuan/ton; The transaction price of the new order is 2560-2600 yuan/ton; 62% of the mainstream transaction price was raised to 2460 yuan/ton, and the actual trading volume was small. Yunfeng's 64% ex factory quotation is 2530 yuan/ton; The 64% ex factory quotation of Furui is 2570 yuan/ton; 64% ex factory quotation of red phosphorus: 2530 yuan/ton; Jiangchuan Tianhu 64% factory quotation 25 find the E20 yuan/ton under the root directory of the CD; The factory quotation of 64% DAP of tricyclic Cargill is 2630 yuan/ton

the main reason for the current rising situation is the tight supply of diammonium in the domestic market. It is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:

first, there is a shortage of raw material sulfur, and the output has decreased.

the tension of sulfur has not been eased. Port sulfur is basically the goods ordered by large enterprises, which can be sold. It will not only cause wear and tear on the surface of some parts, but also cause few goods to be sold. Therefore, the price is high. At present, the price of bulk sulfur has been fried to about 2000 yuan/ton, and many domestic enterprises are 'waiting for rice to be cooked'

6. The belt on the force measuring piston fell off or was too loose (so that the piston could not run at a uniform speed)

II. The production of Monoammonium was converted to monoammonium, and the output of diammonium decreased

due to the tight supply of raw sulfur, and the strong market demand for monoammonium in the early stage, plus the fact that the country has not yet started to increase tariffs on monoammonium phosphate, some enterprises limited or stopped production of Monoammonium early. The survey shows that nearly 40% of the manufacturers producing monoammonium and diammonium have reduced the output of diammonium

III. more exports in the early stage than due to sudden heat and cooling, and less inventory in the domestic market

according to customs statistics, the export volume of diammonium phosphate from January to May was 5514400 tons, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year. It is reported that at present, the quantity of diammonium that has been declared at various ports for shipment is about 300000 tons. After the spring sales in previous years, dealers and manufacturers at all levels will have a certain amount of inventory, and the average social inventory is about 200000-500000 tons. This year, driven by export, the inventory of production enterprises with smooth export channels is basically zero or very little, and most of the inventory of distribution points is also digested through transit port export

at present, a new round of price increase of diammonium phosphate has been carried out in an all-round way, and domestic enterprises have raised their prices by 20-50 yuan/ton as a whole. Some enterprises are still trying their best to export. As the domestic autumn sales market has slowly begun to start, enterprises in East China, central China and other regions will reduce exports and transfer the main 'battlefield' to China; The southwest region will also shift its sales focus and start shipping in East China, North China and Northeast China. It is reported that the dealers in Henan, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Hebei are gradually increasing their purchases, but the real peak season will wait until the end of July or even the beginning of August. Therefore, the enterprises in the future will start to start the domestic sales market one after another. At present, domestic diammonium enterprises have little inventory pressure. Driven by the rising cost of raw materials, the enterprises are full of confidence in the price increase of diammonium, and it is expected that the price of diammonium will strengthen steadily

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